New Climate projections for Ireland published
The EPA last week published new Climate Projections for Ireland. The published report – High Resolution Climate Projections for Ireland: A Multi-Model Ensemble Approach - is available here.
In its main findings, the study indicates that by the middle of this century (2041–60):
- temperatures are projected to increase by 1–1.6°C compared with the baseline period (1981–2000), with the largest increases in the east
- warming will be enhanced at the extremes (i.e. hot days and cold nights), with summer daytime and winter nighttime temperatures projected to increase by 1–2.4°C
- substantial decreases of approximately 50% are projected in the number of frost and ice days
- summer heatwave events are expected to occur more frequently, with the largest increases in the south
- precipitation is expected to become more variable, with substantial projected increases in the occurrence of both dry periods and heavy precipitation events
In the study, regional climate models were employed to dynamically downscale the coarse information of Global Climate Models to provide detailed projections of 21st-century regional climate change in Ireland. The projections were run at high spatial resolution (4 km grid spacing), allowing a more accurate evaluation of the local impacts of climate change.